A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
